Key Elections Ahead Around the World

By The Associated Press
The Associated Press
Saturday, December 31, 2005; 1:54 PM

-- Iraqis are getting a lesson in the messiness of multiparty politics as they head into the new year trying to put together a broad-based government and take the steam from insurgents.

Politics are also on the agenda in Latin America, where several presidential elections will give populist candidates a chance to extend the recent string of victories by the left.

And elections in both Israel and the Palestinian territories could determine whether peace efforts get going again, or remain stalled.

Oil prices are still up, keeping central bankers worrying about inflation, while negotiations to further loosen global trade barriers are snarled in a dispute between poor and wealthy nations over farm subsidies.

International efforts continue to try to rein in the nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea, but atomic-armed rivals India and Pakistan are finding new ways to work together after South Asia's devastating earthquake. Aid groups fear the winter will be devastating for quake survivors.

The Associated Press asked some of its correspondents around the world to assess the prospects for 2006. Here are their reports:

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Iraq

By ROBERT H. REID

BAGHDAD, Iraq _ Iraq enters the new year with another chance to get it right.

If the Iraqis succeed, 2006 will mark the beginning of the end of the bloody U.S. military presence. But if they get it wrong, the year will be one of painful decisions for the United States _ either "stay the course" or find a way out of an increasingly unpopular conflict.

On Dec. 15, millions of Iraqis, including disaffected Sunni Arabs, cast ballots for a new 275-member parliament to serve a full four-year term. Once the votes are counted and seats allocated, Iraqi political leaders must choose a new president, prime minister and Cabinet.

The final lineup will depend on how many seats each of the major tickets won in the December ballot. It's unlikely any single bloc will have enough seats to govern on its own. That means top parties must form a coalition.

Sunni Arabs are the backbone of the insurgency. A new governing coalition that includes Sunnis trusted by their community could erode the insurgents' base of support. Without that support, the insurgents cannot long survive.

But distrust among the Iraqi communities runs deep. Shiites and Kurds harbor bitter resentment for the oppression they suffered under Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime. Many Shiite leaders have little interest in allowing people associated with the former regime play any role in national life.

That distrust sabotaged efforts at reconciliation following the restoration of sovereignty on June 28, 2004, and the election of an interim legislature last January.

If past hatreds can be set aside this time, Iraq has a future as a stable democracy and American troops have a ticket home.

If not, then the new year will be one of bitterness, bloodshed and disappointment.

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Latin America

By IAN JAMES

CARACAS, Venezuela _ The new year offers the Latin American left new chances to test its rising political strength.

Evo Morales' victory in the Bolivian presidential vote at the close of 2005 added one more leader to a growing list who criticize what they consider imperialist U.S. policies and pledge more spending to help the poor.

In Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the populist former mayor of the capital, leads opinion polls while campaigning for the July vote on the slogan "for the good of all, first the poor."

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, an outspoken critic of Washington, enjoys solid support and is favored to win another six-year term next December to deepen his socialist revolution.

Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is expected to seek a second term in October, though polls suggest the former labor leader's popularity has suffered from a corruption scandal in his administration. Sao Paulo's centrist mayor, Jose Serra, is expected to be a tough challenger.

In Colombia, center-right President Alvaro Uribe offers a counter to the leftist trend. He commands strong support for his hard-line stand against leftist rebels and seems poised to win re-election in May.

Nicaragua's leftist Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega will attempt a comeback in November and could see his chances improve following infighting in President Enrique Bolanos' camp. Ortega, who left the presidency in 1990, has lost twice since.

Presidential contenders in Peru include nationalist Ollanta Humala and conservative Lourdes Flores. Supporters of ex-President Alberto Fujimori are trying to legalize his candidacy for the April vote even though he is jailed in Chile fighting extradition on human rights and corruption charges.

Costa Rica and Ecuador also will choose leaders.

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Middle East

By STEVEN GUTKIN

JERUSALEM _ The electoral performance of Hamas militants and a powerful new Israeli party will be key factors determining whether 2006 brings significant progress toward ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank in August raised hopes for a return to talks. But a strong showing by Hamas in municipal voting in the West Bank and Gaza _ combined with a power struggle inside the ruling Fatah Party _ is bolstering militants sworn to Israel's destruction.

A split between Fatah's young and old guards threatens to hurt the party in a crucial Palestinian parliamentary vote Jan. 25, though the two branches might team up to beat back Hamas.

Peacemaking also will be affected by the extent of Israelis' support for a new centrist party called Kadima _ created by former hardline Prime Minister Ariel Sharon when he broke away from his right-wing Likud Party.

Kadima is the most popular party heading into March 25 national elections, and its leaders seem willing to talk peace.

Across the rest of the Middle East, the Bush administration's push for democracy will be a top issue _ along with the threat of Islamic extremism.

The democratic push bore some fruit in 2005, with Egypt allowing some political opposition and freer parliamentary elections and Saudi Arabia holding its first-ever elections.

Lebanon's hopes for greater democracy and independence have been marred by assassinations many blame on Syria, including the February slaying of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The U.N. investigation into Hariri's death could result in greater pressure on Syria.

Iran seems unlikely to back off its increasingly belligerent position toward Israel and the West, and its nuclear program continues to cause alarm.

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Asia

By MATTHEW PENNINGTON

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan _ Earthquake survivors in Kashmir face a fight for survival in the freezing Himalayas at the start of 2006, while the rest of Asia is on guard against a less acute but potentially catastrophic threat: bird flu.

Despite a huge international relief effort, aid workers fear a wave of winter deaths among the more than 3 million people left homeless by the Oct. 8 quake that killed more than 80,000 in the mountains of Pakistan and India.

Many Asians are worrying about another possible natural disaster from the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. The disease has already killed people in Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia and China and forced mass slaughter of poultry amid fears of a global pandemic.

Terrorism remains a serious problem across the continent.

A spate of devastating bombings during 2005 _ including in India's capital, the Indonesian holiday island of Bali and impoverished Bangladesh _ have deepened concerns about violent tactics of Islamic radicals.

Taliban and al-Qaida fighters continue to threaten Afghanistan's new democracy, and there is no end in sight to the Islamic insurgency that has resurfaced in southern Thailand.

Sri Lanka, meanwhile, risks lurching back into civil war as ethnic Tamil rebels press demands for an ethnic homeland.

Yet out of adversity come hopes of peace.

The earthquake heralded unprecedented cooperation between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan and spurred hopes they can eventually resolve their bitter dispute over divided Kashmir.

Also, peace talks between the Philippine government and the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front are expected to enter their final stage, possibly heralding an end to one of Asia's most stubborn rebellions.

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Africa

By ALEXANDRA ZAVIS

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa _ Africa heads into 2006 with some of its wealthiest and least stable countries preparing for critical elections while others teeter on the edge of war.

The United Nations and African Union are battling to defuse a long-running border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea before it explodes again into bloodshed. Violence in Sudan's western Darfur region has escalated and spread into neighboring Chad.

Mineral rich Congo, still plagued by violence after its ruinous civil war, is struggling to register voters for a referendum intended to set the stage for its first elections in 45 years.

Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer, takes another stab at elections after canceling this year's ballot despite objections from rebels who control half the country.

Angola, the continent's second largest oil producer, also is promising its first postwar poll but has no date. Uganda will hold the first multiparty election in President Yoweri Museveni's 19-year rule, with the main challenger running from jail.

Somalia is struggling to overcome divisions between the president and warlords-turned-Cabinet ministers who control the capital, Mogadishu. The split threatens the latest attempt to restore central government after 14 years of anarchy that have let suspected terror cells take root.

Liberia inaugurates Africa's first elected female president Jan. 16, but Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf faces huge challenges as she tries to turn the page on more than a decade of factional war.

Millions in southern Africa are looking at food shortages after four years of drought and an AIDS pandemic that is destroying the rural work force. Among the worst hit is Zimbabwe, whose autocratic leader presided over disastrous land reform.

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Europe

By JOHN LEICESTER

PARIS _ The European Union hopes to move forward again after a year of paralyzing divisions.

EU nations, particularly heavyweights France and Britain, argued bitterly in 2005 over how the 25-nation bloc should spend its money and fund the integration of its 10 newest members, mostly poorer East European countries.

A budget deal reached by EU leaders in mid-December should allow the bloc to concentrate on other pressing issues, including how to revive European economies so they can compete with rising powers like China. But there are deep divisions over how to do that.

Other thorny questions are whether the EU can absorb more countries, including predominantly Muslim Turkey, and whether a proposed EU constitution can be revived after being rejected by French and Dutch voters.

President Bush could lose a key European ally when Italy holds elections, most likely in April. Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who sent troops to Iraq over domestic opposition, faces a tough battle with center-left candidate Romano Prodi, a former EU president who opposed the Iraq war.

Before that vote, Italy hosts the Winter Olympics in Turin in February and is on guard against a terrorist attack.

Bulgaria, which like neighbor Romania is rushing to complete reforms so they can join the EU in 2007, holds a presidential election in the fall. President Georgi Parvanov is expected to seek a second five-year term.

The Balkan breakup that caused bloody wars in the 1990s still has effects. Serbia-Montenegro could cease to exist when pro-independence Montenegro holds a referendum on its status in April. Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority is pushing to get independence in U.N.-sponsored talks, further shrinking Serbia. Bosnia elects a president and new parliament in the fall.

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Russia and the CIS

By JUDITH INGRAM

MOSCOW _ Russia becomes chairman of the Group of Eight industrialized nations in 2006, cementing its place in the elite club of economic powerhouses after 15 years of informal probation over its economic troubles, corruption and democratic shortcomings.

Yet Moscow faces new questions over President Vladimir Putin's commitment to protecting basic freedoms. He will be watched closely in setting planned new rules governing non-governmental groups, which have complained of growing restrictions.

The fighting that erupted over a decade ago in Chechnya still bedevils Russia's Caucasus Mountains region, where poverty, unemployment and police brutality are fueling a simmering Islamic insurgency.

With oil prices still up, Russia's economic boom is likely to continue through 2006. Government coffers will swell and foreign debt will be retired, while Russians feel the effect of some $4 billion in oil-funded social spending.

Russia can realistically expect to join the World Trade Organization in the spring, assuming Moscow can convince the U.S. it has a handle on a piracy problem second only to China's.

Ukraine faces critical parliamentary elections in March that could change the political landscape of the former Soviet republic, either cementing the gains of the Orange Revolution or severely crippling the pro-Western reformers who came to power in 2004.

Belarus will hold a presidential election that incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, dubbed Europe's last dictator, is expected to win by a landslide.

More unrest is expected in formerly Soviet Uzbekistan as President Islam Karimov's government presses his crackdown on dissent after a May uprising put down by troops who killed dozens of mostly unarmed protesters.

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Caribbean

By BEN FOX

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico _ Haiti seeks to restore democracy by holding elections as 2006 opens, while the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay enters the new year with fewer suspected terrorists in its cells _ and a court battle looming over their military trials.

Haiti's election, scheduled for Jan. 8 after several postponements, features 35 candidates for president and hundreds for 129 legislative seats. The region's poorest country has struggled to organize the ballot to replace the interim government that followed the ouster of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in February 2004.

The leading candidate for president is a one-time Aristide ally and former president, Rene Preval, who enjoys strong support in the slums of the capital where gangs regularly battle U.N. troops.

At the U.S. Navy base in Guantanamo, Cuba, the United States starts the year with some 500 prisoners _ down from about 550 a year ago as the U.S. government returns detainees to their home countries.

The first military trials for the nine men charged so far have been delayed by the Supreme Court, which is expected to rule in 2006 on the legality of the military commissions created by President Bush.

In Cuba itself, 79-year-old President Fidel Castro is beginning his 47th year in power after laughing off reports he has Parkinson's disease.

His government is exerting more control over the island's socialist economy. But much of the Caribbean is moving toward more free trade _ though not always willingly.

The 15-nation Caribbean Community launches its Single Market Economy, which will allow certain skilled workers to move more freely about the region. Bahamas opted out and Haiti is suspended from the organization because of its turmoil.

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United Nations

By EDITH M. LEDERER

UNITED NATIONS _ After a year that exposed corruption and mismanagement in the U.N. oil-for-food program in Iraq, a tarnished United Nations will focus on key reforms in 2006.

But, behind the scenes, the top priority will be the choice of a successor to Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

For Annan, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the United Nations in 2001, his 10th and final year at the helm of the world body will provide a last opportunity to shape his legacy.

His reputation suffered a serious blow when investigators criticized him for tolerating corruption in the $64 billion Iraq program and failing to properly investigate his son's employment by a company that won an oil-for-food contract.

At a year-end news conference, Annan said his priorities in 2006 will be fighting poverty and disease and promoting peace, security and U.N. reform.

As for the big global issues confronting the world, he pointed to terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and the Middle East including Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Lebanon-Syria situation.

"We should also keep a very close eye" on Sudan's conflict-wracked Darfur region and on Congo, he said.

For the United States, Europe and Japan _ which pay more than 80 percent of the U.N. budget _ a top priority is adoption of management reforms to overhaul the cumbersome U.N. bureaucracy. A new budget provides operating money for about six months, and if reforms are not adopted by then the United Nations could face a financial crisis.

Member states will also be grappling with the divisive issue of creating a new Human Rights Council to replace the discredited Human Rights Commission.

© 2005 The Associated Press